The three giants have risen 50 to 100 yuan / ton today, and Xiaolong said that the Spring Festival is down for 4 to 23 days!

Attention! The paper giant began to sprint at the end of the year! Whether the paper price can be reversed or just in this last fight! On November 27, after the dragon and the mountain eagle issued a price increase letter, another giant Rongcheng could not wait to join the camp on the 28th. Today (November 29), Rongcheng, Xiaolong and Shanying will collectively raise the price of finished paper. Dongguan Xiaolong also released the Spring Festival shutdown plan on the 28th, and 10 paper machines will be shut down for 4-23 days. Remind everyone to make arrangements for scheduling!

Rongcheng has risen by 50/ton, and today it has risen from Qilong (Quanzhou, Taicang) and Shanying (Anhui, Zhejiang, Fujian).

On the morning of November 28th, Jiangsu Rongcheng Huanke Co., Ltd. (referred to as “Rongcheng Huanke”) also issued a notice of price increase. The company said that due to the continuous increase in raw materials and other comprehensive costs, in order to maintain long-term friendly cooperation between the two sides, the research decided that from November 29, 2018, the price of all the original paper grades of the company will be raised by 50/ton.

Today (November 29), the two bases of Longquan Quanzhou and Taicang, the three bases of Shanying Anhui, Zhejiang and Fujian, and Rongcheng Huake Qiqi raised their prices. The following are specific increases:

After the price adjustment on November 29, some of the quotations are as follows:

Taicang Xiaolong (excluding ex-factory price of tax wire): boxboard paper 玖Longniu card 150g reported 5100/ton, 170-280g reported 4850/ton; Hailong cattle card 120g reported 4550/ton, 140g reported 4450/ton, 170g reported 4400 / ton, 200/250g reported 4350 / ton; Dilong cattle card 105 / 110g reported 4350 / ton, 120g reported 4300 / ton, 140g reported 4200 / ton, 160g reported 4100 / ton, 190g reported 4050 / ton; 90g reported 4450/ton, 100g reported 4350/ton, 105/110g reported 4250/ton, 130g reported 4200/ton, 150g reported 4000/ton, and 180g reported 3950/ton.

Quanzhou Xiaolong (excluding ex-factory price of tax wire transfer): 玖龙牛卡126g reported 5300/ton, 140/170g reported 5200/ton; Hailong cattle card 130g reported 4750/ton, 170g reported 4700/ton; Dilong cattle card 100g 4500/ton, 130/140g reported 4300/ton; Dilong recycled 100g reported 4400/ton.

Zhejiang Shanying (excluding tax ex-factory price): box paper yew 170g reported 5350/ton, 200g reported 5250/ton; silver fir 120g reported 4850/ton, 140g reported 4750/ton, 160/170g reported 4550/ton, 200g reported 4500/ton, 250g reported 4400/ton; Sequoia 120g reported 4600/ton, 130/140g reported 4450/ton, 160/170g reported 4350/ton; T-paper 90g reported 4550/ton, 100g reported 4450/ton, 110g reported 4350/ton, 120g reported 4250/ton, and 130/140g reported 4150/ton.

Fujian Shanying (excluding ex-factory price of tax wire): box paper purple shirt 170g reported 5600/ton, 200g reported 5500/ton; boxboard silver fir 170g reported 4800/ton, silver fir 200g reported 4750/ton; cardboard paper Sequoia 160/170g reported 4,600/ton; cardboard paper T/130/140g reported 4,400/ton.

Dongguan Xiaolong Spring Festival notice, 10 paper machines for up to 23 days

The downtime of the paper mills, which coincided with the price increase, also followed. Following the release of the shutdown letter by Zhejiang Shanying and Taicang Xiaolong, Dongguan Xiaolong also threw out the Spring Festival shutdown notice.

PM1 cattle cardboard: February 1st - February 8th (downtime 8 days);

PM2 cattle cardboard: February 1st - February 9th (downtime 9 days);

PM3 white-faced cattle card, coated cattle card: February 1st - February 15th (15 days);

PM6, PM7 corrugated paper: February 1st - February 15th (15 days);

PM9, PM10 corrugated paper: February 1st - February 15th (15 days);

PM4 gray-white board: January 24th - February 15th (23 days);

PM11 gray-white board: February 1st - February 4th (4 days);

PM18 corrugated paper: February 1st - February 15th (15 days);

PM19 cattle cardboard: February 2nd - February 15th (14 days);

PM32 gray bottom board: January 18th - January 27th (10 days).

Taicang Nine Dragons Paper: The PM5 shutdown date is from November 22 to December 10, with a total of 19 days of downtime. The Taicang Xiaolong PM5 was put into operation in 2003, mainly producing cattle cardboard, with an annual output of 500,000 tons.

Zhejiang Shanying Paper: PM13 equipment transformation, the transformation time is initially set from December 6th to December 20th. The downtime is about 15 days, affecting Jingui and Sijigui.

There are four reasons for the price increase of this round of raw paper, and the increase in external waste costs is the main cause.

Since the second half of this year, the base paper has experienced a long period of downturn. After the "double eleven" small peak, the paper price returned to calm again. The paper giants have started to rise, what is the reason? According to a senior person in the industry, there are four reasons for this paper price increase:

1. The US waste and 25% tariff increase caused the cost of external waste to rise sharply.

2. In 2019, the probability of the amount of the waste ring guarantee will be reduced.

In March and December, the price of the Chinese New Year will gradually rebound.

4, "Double Eleven" original paper preparation library has been used up, will bring the double 12, Christmas, Dan, Spring Festival small peak season to drive the downstream rigid replenishment demand.

In terms of paper mills, Xiaolong, Shanying and Rongcheng all pointed out that they were affected by the rising cost of raw materials, especially waste. What is the impact of waste paper mills? As early as September this year, Rongcheng executives have angered China’s one-size-fits-all “forbidden waste order”, and because of the unpredictable quota for imported waste paper, Rongcheng’s board of directors decided Actively withdraw the listing of land A shares.

Rongcheng said that the result of a one-size-fits-all approach, resulting in a sharp imbalance in the cost structure of the supply chain, also caused Rongcheng Environmental to misjudge the situation, affecting the profitability, and hoped that the global recycling paper supply chain that was out of order would return to normal track as soon as possible. .

Rongcheng Huanke is the one with the smallest amount of external waste quotas

——In the past 5 years, self-management reduced the amount of imported recycled paper, which turned into a fatal blow.

Rongcheng Huanke's imported recycled paper consumption accounted for the total recycled paper consumption ratio, and fell to less than 30% of total consumption in 2017. In contrast, Lutong's scale factory in 2017 accounted for more than 60% of the total recycled paper consumption.

Unexpectedly, the policy of the central government's ban on waste is adopted across the board. According to the quota method of reducing the total amount of imported recycled paper in the previous year, it is difficult for foreign Taiwanese businessmen to obtain fair competition with local factories. Currently, the import recycling paper quota has been issued. Rongcheng Huanke is the one with the least quota for the Lutongye scale factory. (Rongcheng accepts the interview of the China Electronics Newsletter in September 2018)

The last fight before the end of the paper mill, is it for the late price increase?

In addition to the bullish faction, there are also people in the industry who are pessimistic or wait-and-see attitude toward this price increase: Xiaobian has compiled some more representative views for the family:

Pessimistic analysis: From the current point of view, Christmas, double 12, and the Spring Festival demand is not significantly strong, coupled with the country's promotion of green packaging, some users abandon the traditional carton, resulting in lower-than-expected downstream demand, December packaging paper Market demand pressure is still relatively high. The demand is not good, who wants to buy your paper?

The wait-and-see group believes that the factory shutdown price will affect the supply of raw paper, and the expected demand for several waves at the end of the year will be increased. This round of price increases has increased from the price increase in the first half of November. However, it can be seen from the increase of the paper mill that the tentativeness is full and the price increase is not sufficient. Keep watching!

Bullish prediction: After all, this may be the last fight before the end of the paper mill, love will fight to win! Especially for listed companies, the annual report should be beautiful to share with shareholders, how to give up the performance of the paper mill I estimate that if this wave of operation 666, there will be a wave of price increases in December. Now the whole 50/100 rise, maybe it is to pave the way for the next 200/300! Fear!

In the context of shrinking overall market this year, can the packaging paper capture this wave of demand expectations and achieve a headwind over the end of the year? Is this the last step of the paper mill, or is it for the late price increase? I believe that the market will soon be available. verification.

Responsible editor: Ge

This article is posted on the website for the purpose of transmitting more information and does not imply endorsement of its views or confirmation of its description.

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