Since then, the carton people have been "righteous" and "slowly" and "stepped forward"

The carton industry that started running in October 2016 finally got stuck at the end of October, and the peak season was completely out of play. Next, the carton people will enter the rhythm of standing up, taking a break, and walking.

"right" - stop

According to statistics, the entire paper market in the country from January to September this year:

Produced 88.66 million tons of various types of paper, down 7.2% year-on-year;

Production of 10.53 million tons of virgin pulp, down 16% year-on-year;

The production of paper products was 42.36 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.6%.

The output of carton was 21.21 million tons, down 28.3% year-on-year.

The main industry's main income was 1.0578 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10%.

The industry's profit was 59.1 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year.

Corresponding to the price of raw paper and waste paper since May this year

Corrugated paper: 5100 yuan / ton fell to 4,000 yuan / ton, a drop of nearly 22%,

Cardboard paper: 5,600 yuan / ton fell to 4,300 yuan / ton, a drop of 23%.

Waste paper: 3200 yuan / ton fell to 2200 yuan / ton, a decline of more than 30%.

Capacity status compared with the same period last year

Cardboard line: 30% lower than the same period last year, the operating rate is about 60%

Carton factory: a 30% drop from the same period last year,

Paper mill inventory: 30% increase compared to the same period last year

The above figures can be correspondingly analyzed: the overall demand decreased by about 30% this year, which led to a 30% increase in the stock of raw paper, 40% of the excess capacity of the cardboard line, 30% of the capacity of the carton factory, and the price of the original paper fell by nearly 20% due to the decrease in demand. Waste paper fell 30%, and industry profits (mainly paper and cardboard) fell 20%.

The decline in the price of the paper industry is a drop in the high profit margin. The decline in the price of the paperboard industry is at a low profit margin. The decline in the price of the carton is basically the same as the decline in the profit margin. The fall in the price of the waste paper is a rigid loss caused by the time difference between the goods.

The entire industry has now reached a stalemate in this state of the node, completely stop the rising momentum, will not continue to fall back is still unclear, "right" is the best posture!

"Sleep" - thinking

Since the rise has been hopeless, the stop-loss is the top priority, and has experienced so many ups and downs, earning madness, falling flustered and often shut down, and the heart is already chaotic.

Stabilizing prices: Prices are affected by a combination of supply and demand, psychological expectations, marketing strategies, and pulp futures. The biggest factor is supply and demand.

In the relationship between supply and demand, the two sides adjust separately. The demand side is difficult to rebound quickly in the short term due to the economic downturn, uncertain trade wars, high price and non-demand customers. It can only be adjusted back to the supply side, and the adjustment of the supply side is nothing more than elimination. The old production capacity stopped adding new capacity. The low-end paper mills, backward carton equipment, and backward cardboard equipment are bound to become the first victims to be eliminated. The enterprises with weak operating capacity and insufficient cash flow are the second batch of eliminated production capacity.

When the supply-demand relationship is adjusted to a reasonable position, the overall price trend of the resource-stable industrial chain will be reconfigured, from low-price competition to quality, service, and system service competition.

Stabilizing the industrial chain: The stability of the industrial chain is actually the problem of stable distribution of interests. The reason for the large fluctuations in the entire industrial chain is because the market has a problem in the distribution of benefits in a short period of time. Some enterprises with superior resources use the position advantage of the industry in the short term to rush to grab and squeeze upstream or downstream enterprises in the industrial chain. This leads to a serious uneven distribution of interests. This imbalance in the distribution of interests leads to mutual trust and stability damage and mutual harm. The result is the pain of the whole industry today.

The stability of this chain is also the stability of the distribution of interests. In the future, when the concentration of the industry and the monopoly become more and more strong, there will be two movements. On the one hand, it is more stable and the other is more and more closed.

[More and more stable] With the increasing concentration of resources and capital, whether it is a large papermaking enterprise or a group-type carton enterprise, the pace of expansion will only be faster and faster and will not stop. It can even be said that the industry is less The faster the pace of economic expansion, because only the expansion during the trough is the lowest cost. This expansion will be carried out simultaneously in two dimensions: horizontal expansion or capacity expansion (capacity expansion will gradually move toward acquisition rather than new). Another is vertical expansion, which is to rapidly expand waste paper recycling, pulp manufacturing business and cardboard. Carton business. In this way, due to the large production capacity and complete industrial line, the entire internal closed-loop supply system and price system will naturally stabilize the industrial chain interest system.

[More and more closed] Because the simultaneous development of large enterprises in both directions has reached a new market balance, the overall pattern of the entire industry has basically formed and closed the possibility of other competitors entering. Many existing small and medium-sized enterprises have either gradually withdrawn, or gradually acquired and merged by large enterprises, and some have been transformed into enterprises with unique services. In the near future, small and medium-sized carton factories will ask who you are, but who you are. The system, the 玖龙派 or the Liberal, the Mountain Eagle, and so on are similar to today's Ali and Tencent.

"Going step by step"--starting again

The industry has experienced rapid expansion, fierce competition, and truce adjustments, and naturally will re-combine. The combination is nothing more than a combination of others and being combined by others. After all, it is a steady development after the surge. It is only at that time that the carton is still the carton. I am not the original me!

Waste paper merchants: Completely collected by the paper mills, there are guarantees and rules with the unified number.

Paper mill: It is no longer a prince who drinks only the Yangtze River. The team is big, the brothers and sisters are more, and the natural responsibility is also heavy.

Cardboard factory: The independent paperboard factory basically saw it again, and it became the front process of the carton process. The big doorway had a brand “XX Paper Group XX Factory”, which was a little more than the original.

Carton factory: still happy production, but the class and the platoon system are all canceled and merged into an independent group. They are directly commanded by the group army. The army is full and the group operations are completely free from guerrilla warfare!

Four squares, one slogan, walk in step!

Responsible editor: Ge

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