The waste paper demand gap exceeds 30 million tons? Nonsense!

According to an analysis before, by 2020, my waste paper demand gap will be at least 30 million tons. In fact, with many domestic paper companies going abroad, building factories overseas to meet the demand for domestic raw materials, it has also eased the pressure on domestic waste paper demand to some extent. On the other hand, with the improvement of China's waste paper recycling system and the improvement of waste paper recycling rate, before 2020, China's waste paper supply and demand can basically reach a balance, and there will be no gap between supply and demand.

China's waste paper recycling volume is rising year by year

In 2017, the overall situation of China's domestic economy was stable and the overall situation of the paper industry's production and operation remained basically stable. The national machinery and paperboard production volume was 154,420,100 tons, an increase of 3.1% over the previous year; the consumption was 12,105,270 tons. Year-on-year growth of 3.4%.

Figure 1: Production of mechanical paper and board in China

Source: Wind Zhongzhou Futures

Since 2010, the import volume of waste paper in China has exceeded 25 million tons. Since the “Regulations on Environmental Protection Management of Imported Waste Paper” issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in December 2017, foreign waste imports have become stricter, and the waste paper recycling system in China has not been perfected. At present, the recycling rate of waste paper is low. According to the monitoring data of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the utilization rate of waste paper in China in 2017 was 70.6%. However, in 2017, China's waste paper recycling rate was only 48.5%, far lower than the 70% level of developed countries.

Figure 2: China's waste paper consumption

Source: Wind Zhongzhou Futures

Figure 3: China's waste paper imports

Source: Wind Zhongzhou Futures

China's domestic waste paper recycling volume showed a slow upward trend. In 2017, the total recycling volume was 52.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. In 2017, the consumption of waste paper was 63.02 million tons, and the domestic waste paper demand gap was 10.16 million tons. In the past, the gap in demand for waste paper was mainly filled by waste paper imports. In 2017, the import volume of 20.63 million tons of waste paper basically filled the domestic waste paper demand.

Domestic paper enterprises have established overseas factories and recycling systems, and the waste paper gap is basically filled.

According to the newly published Catalogue of Imported Waste Management, 16 kinds of commodities will be listed as banned from importing solid waste on December 31, 2018. In addition, 16 kinds of commodities will be listed as banned from December 31, 2019. Solid Waste. Waste paper is not in the 32 catalogues, which means that by 2021, before December 31, 2020, China will still allow the import of waste paper. In addition, the list of the first 23 batches of waste paper imported from the Solid Waste and Chemicals Management Technology Center of the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China shows that the approved import volume in 2018 has exceeded 18 million tons.

In recent years, many domestic paper enterprises have gone abroad to set up factories overseas to meet the demand for domestic raw materials, which has also eased the pressure on domestic waste paper demand to some extent. At present, there is downward pressure on the domestic economy. The uncertainty of Sino-US trade friction also affects the demand of the domestic paper industry. With the improvement of China's waste paper recycling system and the improvement of waste paper recycling rate, before 2020, China's waste paper supply and demand basic Balance can be achieved without a gap between supply and demand.

Editor in charge: Cao

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