Prospect of the price trend of national waste yellow paper in 2019

Source: Zhuo Chuang Information

At present, the downward pressure on the Chinese economy is superimposed by the unilateral trade disputes provoked by the United States. The combination of the two brings greater sustained pressure on domestic paper packaging demand. This is the long-term pressure above the price of waste paper in 2019.

First of all, in terms of the development trend of trade disputes unilaterally provoked by the United States in 2019, there may be a stalemate, aggravation and easing, and a suspension of the two directions. If the trade dispute unilaterally provoked by the United States in 2019 is moderated and suspended, That will undoubtedly make the packaging paper industry chain get rid of the operational pressure, regain the rising expectations, the national waste yellow paper price will return to high level operation, and may even hit the previous high. However, in 2019, the trade dispute unilaterally provoked by the United States has the highest probability of stalemate and aggravation. It is expected that the pressure on domestic paper packaging demand will also increase in 2019. And this is an important reference for the prediction of domestic waste paper prices in 2019.

Secondly, it is expected that the speculative operation of waste paper suppliers in 2019 will gradually withdraw. In 2018, the speculative atmosphere in the finished paper market quickly exited, which greatly promoted the year-on-year decrease in demand for finished paper, but at the same time, the speculative atmosphere in the waste paper market is still operating at a high level, but the price of scrap yellow paper in the second half of 2018 In the context of continued decline, the profitability of speculative operations in the market is more pessimistic, which is not conducive to the high level of speculative atmosphere in 2019. In this way, the supply of waste paper will gradually return to a stable level. Even the residence time of the municipal waste paper in the waste paper recycling link will continue to shorten, which will help the annual recycling of the national waste, and there will be some pressure on the price trend of waste paper.

Finally, as an important support for the national waste yellow paper price trend, the amount of imported waste paper will continue to be significantly tightened in 2019 according to the policy setting, but as the amount of waste paper pulp and semi-finished paper products is expected to import, the number is expected to grow rapidly. The support for the 2019 national waste yellow paper price will be reduced as the industry changes accelerate.

Therefore, it is expected that under the background of the pressure on the waste paper price, and the underlying support factors will gradually weaken, the price of the national waste yellow paper will face a range of fluctuations in 2019, and the initial measurement of the national waste yellow paper A grade average price operation. The interval is 1500-2700/ton.

Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan

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