Light industrial textile industry: continue to recommend the leading segment

Last week's major data review: textile and apparel: cotton: Zheng cotton 1709 weekly average price: 15258 yuan / ton (+0.76%); cotton spot weekly average price: 16087.1 yuan / ton (-0.5%); cotton 328 price index:

15978.8 yuan / ton (-0.4%); Cotlook A: 83.1 cents / lb (-2.1%); cotton yarn: 32 cotton carded yarn price 23275 yuan / ton (-0.06%); 40 cotton essence Comb price: 27016 yuan / ton (-0.1%); grey cloth: 32 cotton twill price 5.8 yuan / m (-0.0%); retail: May social consumer goods retail clothing, textiles increased by 8% year-on-year; In May, the retail sales of consumer goods and textiles increased by 7.2% year-on-year; exports: textiles and clothing exports (in RMB) increased by 10.5% and 7% in May; and the total exports of textiles and clothing in the first five months (in RMB) Calculated by 8.6% and 8.3% year-on-year; papermaking raw materials: US waste 8# last week's average price was 189.2 US dollars / ton (+2.8 US dollars / ton); bleached softwood pulp - black needle last week average price of 620 US dollars / ton ( +0 USD / ton); bleached hardwood pulp - parrot last week average price of 655 US dollars / ton (-17.5 US dollars / ton); chemical machine pulp - Jiawei needles last week average price of 540 US dollars / ton (+0 US dollars / Ton); base paper: gray bottom white paper last week, the average market price of 3727.5 yuan / ton (+10 yuan / ton); white cardboard last week market average price of 6295 yuan / ton (-0.0 yuan / ton); corrugated paper last week market The average price is 3723.2 yuan / ton (+396.5 yuan / ton); the average price of coated paper last week was 6539.9 yuan / ton (-130.9 yuan / ton); double glue Last week, the average market price was 6508.33 yuan / ton (+0 yuan / ton); real estate and furniture: the sales area of ​​commercial housing increased by 14.3% in the first five months, furniture retail sales increased by 13% year-on-year; gold and silver jewelry: May gold and silver jewelry month +9.6% year-on-year, cumulative +8.2%.

Resumption: Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,517.87 (0.33%), with a weekly increase of +1.11%. Last week, the textile and apparel (Shenwan) index rose by -1.66%, underperforming 2.77pct. All sub-sectors underperformed the broader market last week. Last week, the light manufacturing sector rose by -0.79%, underperforming the broader market by 1.9pct. Textile and Apparel: Last week, textile manufacturing rose by -2.06%, underperforming the market by 3.17pct; clothing home textiles rose by -1.4%, underperforming the market by 2.51pct. Light industry manufacturing: Last week, the packaging and printing sector rose by -2.03%, underperforming the broader market by 3.14pct; the domestic light industry sector rose by -0.02%, underperforming the broader market by 1.13pct; the paper and jewelry sub-sectors rose by -0.82%, +0.85 respectively. %.

This week's main points of view and focus on individual stocks: last week's market volatility up 1.11%, SSE 50 rose 3.11%, benefiting from the positive impact of A shares into the msci index, the leading white horse market was strengthened, home appliances, non-silver, food and beverage performance Good, and light industry has not been selected because of a small stock market value, etc., last week's performance was weak, down 0.79%. In the molecular industry, the short-term opportunities for furniture at present are relatively limited. The previous real estate data is better than the overall strength of the furniture sector. After a round of upswing, the overall valuation level is currently at a relatively high level, and the upper limit of post-purchase real estate data may have downward pressure. The valuation and performance of the furniture sector may have a certain impact in the short term. The short-term proposal is cautious, but in the medium and long-term, we are still very optimistic about the custom furniture sector and high-quality finished furniture enterprises. The medium and long-term layout can be laid out in the European home (cabinet, wardrobe, wooden door, bathroom, etc.) The product line has gradually matured, and it has begun to exert its full strength. The channel construction is relatively complete. The brand has high recognition in the first, second and third and fourth tier cities, and launches the relatively low-end brand Ou Bo Li, helping to seize the third and fourth tier markets. Cabinets belong to the pre-purchase requirements, can drive the coordinated development of large household products such as wardrobes and wooden doors.) Sophia (the brand recognition of wardrobes has sunk to the fourth- and fifth-tier cities, cabinets have a high probability of breakeven this year, wooden doors and curtains business also Continue to force), Qumei home, Gujia home and so on. The recent attention of papermaking has improved, mainly because the price of waste paper has continued to rebound and hit a new high since last year, but paper prices have become more differentiated. The corrugated boxboard paper with waste paper as the raw material ushered in the peak season, and the price stabilized and rebounded. It is expected that the short-term price of paper using waste paper as raw material will be firm.

However, the wood pulp grade paper is in the off-season. As the price of wood pulp is loose, the paper grades such as white card, double glue and copper plate are under pressure, and the inventory continues to rise. The continued rise in paper prices has not yet formed a synergy, and the overall opportunity for the sector still needs to wait. In the medium and long term, the supply-side reform and environmental protection tend to be irreversible, and the industry's prosperity will continue to rise. If the paper price does not fall sharply, the papermaking sector in the third and fourth quarters will still have a greater chance after entering the peak season. We are optimistic about the multi-product layout of the Sun Paper and the life paper faucet in the Shun Jie.

Risk Warning: Furniture companies are affected by the decline in revenue due to real estate purchase restrictions; the risk of large fluctuations in the prices of various types of paper products.