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1. Basic trend forecast in the second half of the year
The paper industry will further improve in the second half of the year. Although the output value of the industry is unlikely to increase significantly due to the significant drop in raw material costs, the output of the paper industry will maintain a good growth trend. It is expected that the annual output will increase by about 8%. In terms of price, the products will be driven by the cost of raw materials, which will increase slightly, which will stimulate enterprises to speed up production and capacity expansion. On the export side, enterprises will strive to expand the international market, and exports will continue to rise in a monthly trend, but will not change the negative growth of total exports. The situation.
2. Analysis of positive factors affecting the development of the paper industry
The state has always given active support to the development of the paper industry. The Light Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan has listed the paper industry as a key support industry. The state will provide financial support for the forestry and paper integration project and technological transformation of the paper industry, and further eliminate backwardness. Capacity, which will provide a broader market space for advanced large enterprises, will promote paper products to further scale, the level, and then promote the healthy development of the industry.
On the international front, as China continues to implement anti-dumping measures against coated paper from South Korea and Japan, it will protect the domestic coated paper industry from a good market development environment; while European and American countries are increasingly reducing production capacity due to the financial crisis, making China's paper companies more More opportunities to go out.
3. Analysis of unfavorable factors affecting the development of paper industry
The rapid expansion of the paper industry in the past few years has led to a trend of overcapacity in some varieties. Under the situation of the international financial crisis in 2008, domestic and international demand has shrunk, and the contradiction between overcapacity of some products has been further highlighted. At present, with the improvement of the economic situation, investment in the paper industry has entered a period of rapid growth. Some of these projects are low-level expansion, which will aggravate the contradiction between supply and demand in the future market, easily lead to vicious competition and damage the development of the industry.
Paper industry trend in the second half of 2009
With the decline and reduction of foreign pulp and paper enterprises, the international pulp price will further rise in the second half of the year, which will stimulate the paper price to rise and promote the development of the paper industry. However, the contradiction of overcapacity in some varieties may be further highlighted, requiring national economic management. The department pays attention.