Labor supply effect of old-age security

The degree has improved the welfare and encouraged the elderly to retire early (8-disc 88).

The labor participation rate was 83.6%; the labor supply time also showed similar characteristics. The average labor supply time was 181.6 days. The labor supply time of the farmers participating in the pension insurance was 164.8 days, while the farm labor without the pension insurance The supply time is 191.8 days. The distribution of labor participation rate and labor supply time is visually displayed (see). The distribution curve of total labor participation rate of farmers participating in endowment insurance is more to the left, the labor participation rate is relatively lower, and the distribution of labor supply time is more interesting. In the sample with a time of less than 150 days, the labor supply time distribution curve of the farmers participating in the pension insurance is lower, which indicates that the total labor supply time of the farmers participating in the pension insurance is less when the employment is insufficient and the labor intensity is small. In the case of samples older than 200 days, the opposite is true. Farmers participating in pension insurance have more overall labor supply time.

The distribution relationship between S1 pension insurance coverage and total rest labor participation in cold and labor supply time Note: (1) The left picture shows the distribution of the overall labor participation rate, and the right picture shows the distribution of the total labor supply time. (2) Labor participation rate The average labor participation rate of each age is calculated according to the labor participation status of the sample individuals, and the nuclear density distribution of the labor participation rate of all ages is drawn according to whether or not to participate in the pension insurance.

From the perspective of age grouping (see Table 2), the overall labor participation rate of young people participating in pension insurance and those not participating in pension insurance is not much different. With age, the gap in labor participation rate between the two groups is significantly larger. The overall labor participation rate of 50-59 years old was 57.6% and 91.3%, respectively, and 43.1% and 66.4% were 60 years old and above respectively. The agricultural labor participation rate and the non-agricultural labor participation rate showed similar characteristics, and the pension insurance coverage The impact of middle-aged and elderly people who are close to or have reached retirement age is more obvious. The agricultural labor participation rate of the 5,059-year-old and non-insured persons is 42.4% and 83.4%, respectively, and the non-agricultural labor participation rate of the same age group is 23.7. % and 28.9%. From the perspective of labor supply time, the total labor supply time of the 5059-year-old insured and uninsured is 142.3' days and 206.7 days, respectively, and the total labor supply time of 60 years old and above is 98. 5 days and 133.2 days, the difference between the two is more obvious.

Table 2 Endowment insurance coverage and labor participation rate and labor supply time (by age group) Overall labor participation rate Agricultural labor participation rate Non-agricultural labor participation rate Uninsured Insured Uninsured Insured Uninsured Insured 60 years old and above Total labor supply (days) agricultural labor supply (days) non-agricultural labor supply (days) uninsured insured uninsured insured insured uninsured insured 60 years old and above (b) labor participation model estimated labor participation model empirical The estimation results show (see Tables 3 and 4), the estimation results of the main control variables and the general theory. Table 3: The labor participation model of the old-age security coverage. The results of the estimation of the total labor participation model, the agricultural labor participation model, the non-agricultural labor participation model LP "People's Insurance Personal Characteristics Health Status Family Characteristics Economic Factors Wald Test Observations Number Note: The bracket values ​​indicate the robust standard deviation, and the square bracket values ​​represent the Wald exogenous chi-square test p-value; respectively, at 1%, 5%, and 10 The level of % is significant; Table 4: Labor participation model for the enjoyment of pension benefits, the results of the explanation, the explanatory variables, the overall labor participation model, the agricultural labor participation model, the non-agricultural labor participation model. Type ip "treatment enjoyment treatment level treatment enjoy treatment level treatment enjoyment treatment level pension insurance personal characteristics health status family characteristics economic factors observation value Note: The estimated result is marginal effect (the following tables are the same).

The framework is basically consistent with most empirical studies. We focus on the factors of old-age security. From the perspectives of pension coverage and pension treatment, the pension benefits are benefited from the benefits of pension (ierae/ciary) and pension (pension). Go to analysis. The two-stage estimation of the instrumental variable method ivprobit is basically consistent with the probit estimation result. The pension insurance coverage variable passes the test at the 1% significance level, and the estimation coefficient is negative, indicating that the personal characteristics, health status, family characteristics and economic status are controlled. In the case of equal variables, participation in pension insurance will tend to reduce the labor participation rate of farmers, especially for the agricultural labor participation rate. According to the marginal effect of probit estimation, participation in pension insurance will enable farmers to participate in agricultural labor participation. Decreased by 10.3%, the overall labor participation rate decreased by 6.6%. Gilesetal. (2012) used the CHARLS data to construct the labor participation model and also adopted the probit estimation. The pension factor in the control variables also significantly affected the overall labor of the rural middle-aged and elderly people. Participation rate, but does not distinguish between agricultural and non-agricultural labor.

Different from the insured behavior, the level of pension benefits and pensions in the past year is mainly determined by the insurance system, and is not directly affected by the labor decision-making behavior. The endogenous problem has little effect. We tend to use the Fbit estimation method. The model estimation results show that farmers who enjoy pensions tend to reduce the non-agricultural labor participation rate and overall labor participation rate, and the higher the pension benefits, the greater the incentives for farmers to reduce non-agricultural and overall labor participation rate, probit estimates From the marginal effect, the benefits of pension insurance will reduce the non-agricultural labor participation rate of farmers by 13.6%, and the overall labor participation rate will fall by 4. 4%. However, the level of pension and pension benefits is not significant in the agricultural labor participation model. The current level of pension security may not be enough to change their agricultural labor participation in decision-making.

We further observe the labor participation effect of different types of pension insurance systems. The basic structure of the empirical model is consistent with the previous overall model, and the model estimates the probit estimation method. The empirical results show that (see Table 5), the new rural insurance system will encourage farmers to reduce the non-agricultural labor participation rate, but has a significant positive effect on the agricultural labor participation rate and the overall labor participation rate. From this perspective, it is currently being implemented nationwide. The new rural insurance system is more inclined to keep farmers in agricultural and rural areas. The basic endowment insurance system for urban workers significantly encourages farmers to reduce the rate of agricultural labor participation and increase the participation rate of non-agricultural labor. The comprehensive insurance system for migrant workers also tends to encourage farmers to engage in non-agricultural labor activities and has the effect of increasing the overall labor participation rate. Mainly because these two insurance system designs are directly related to non-agricultural employment activities. The endowment insurance system for land-losing farmers significantly reduces the agricultural labor participation rate and overall labor participation rate of farmers, mainly because the insurance system is designed to be applied to farmers who have been requisitioned, and farmers who lose all or part of their land tend to opt out of agricultural production, but This has not significantly increased non-agricultural activities, and the system has significantly motivated farmers to exit the labor market.

Table 5 Estimation results of labor participation effects of different types of endowment insurance pension insurance type overall labor participation model LP agricultural labor participation model non-agricultural labor participation model NRP new rural insurance old rural insurance / /> urban employee pension insurance lost land farmers pension insurance MCP migrant workers Comprehensive insurance ocp other pension insurance Note: Other control variables are consistent with the labor participation model covered by the previous overall pension protection. Considering the space limit, the estimation results of the other control changes are omitted.

(III) Labor supply model estimation In the agricultural labor supply model, the OLS and ivTobit estimation results are basically the same (see Table 6), and the pension insurance coverage variables are all explained by the labor supply model estimation results covered by the pension insurance in Table 6. Model agricultural labor supply model non-agricultural labor supply model LS "endowment insurance personal characteristics health status family characteristics economic factors Wald test observations number of significant tests, the estimated marginal effect is negative, indicating that personal characteristics, health status, In the case of family characteristics and economic conditions, participation in pension insurance will tend to reduce the agricultural labor time of farmers. However, the coverage of pension insurance in the non-agricultural labor supply model does not pass the significant test, indicating that the pension insurance coverage provides non-agricultural labor supply. The level has no significant impact, which means that farmers will not significantly reduce non-agricultural labor time by participating in pension insurance. In the overall labor supply model, pension insurance coverage has passed the significance test in the ivTobit estimate, indicating that the coverage of insurance coverage is generally Tend to lower the overall size of farmers Labor supply level.

Farmers who participate in pension insurance and are eligible for pensions are mainly middle-aged and elderly people close to retirement age. Pensions can relax budgetary constraints as a transfer payment. In general, they tend to encourage laborers to replace labor with leisure, thus reducing labor. Supply or exit from the labor market, that is, pensions show a stronger income effect. The empirical model estimation results are also confirmed (see Table 7). The enjoyment of pensions will reduce the non-agricultural labor supply time of farmers by 45. 5 days, and the overall labor supply time will be reduced by 24.7 days, but the impact on agricultural labor supply time is not obvious. The negative effect of labor supply on the level of pension is more prominent. In the agricultural labor, non-agricultural labor and the overall labor supply model, significant tests have been passed, which means that with the increase of pension levels, middle-aged and old-age farmers tend to reduce agriculture. , non-agricultural and overall labor supply time. There are also significant differences in the impact of different types of endowment insurance on the labor supply level of farmers. The model estimation results are basically consistent with the previous labor participation model, and no specific results are reported.

Table 7 Labor Supply Model for Pension Benefits Estimation Results Interpretation Variables Overall Labor Supply Model IP Agricultural Labor Supply Model Non-agricultural Labor Supply Model W31 Treatment Enjoyment Level Treatment Enjoyment Level Treatment Enjoyment Level Pension Insurance Personal Characteristics Health Status Family Characteristics Continued 7 Explain the change of the overall labor supply model ip agricultural labor supply model I, non-agricultural labor supply model treatment enjoyment level treatment enjoyment treatment level treatment enjoyment treatment level economic factors observations Note: Using Tobit estimates, the estimated result is marginal effect.

IV. Conclusions and Policy Implications This study integrates the old-age security system into the labor participation model and the labor supply model, and uses the rural household sample survey data to observe the labor supply effect of the old-age security system. The research shows that the coverage of old-age security significantly affects the labor supply behavior of farmers, and generally tends to reduce the labor participation rate and labor supply level, especially for the agricultural labor participation rate; the pension security treatment also shows a strong income effect. , tend to encourage farmers to reduce labor time or exit the labor market faster. However, there are differences in the labor supply effects of different types of pension insurance systems. The new agricultural insurance system tends to leave farmers in agricultural and rural areas instead of transferring to urban non-agricultural sectors, while urban employee pension insurance systems and migrant workers comprehensive insurance systems. More inclined to encourage farmers to leave agriculture and rural areas, and actively transfer to urban areas for non-agricultural employment. The land-expropriated endowment insurance system for farmers is more motivated to directly withdraw from the labor market.

The old-age security system has an obvious labor supply effect, which has important policy implications for the future reform of the social security system, urban and rural labor market construction, and long-term economic growth. In the past ten years, China's old-age security system has been in the stage of framework design and system exploration. The research and policy departments have focused on system design and internal system operation, and have not paid much attention to its profound impact on the entire economic and social system. First of all, the reform of the social security system should pay more attention to the evaluation of economic and social effects. In the absence of significant improvement in the technical level, the decline in labor supply will inevitably affect potential economic growth. China is currently in the stage of rapid development of the social security system, and it is easier to over-emphasize its welfare function while ignoring the coordination function of the labor market and economic growth. The supply effect of different pension insurance systems is quite different. It is also the fragmentation and immaturity of China's social security system. The convergence and unification of the security system between urban and rural areas and groups needs to be improved as soon as possible.

Second, the social security system is accelerating the fundamental transformation of the labor market. In the agricultural and rural areas, the old-age security system generally encourages rural residents to withdraw from labor earlier. The agricultural labor market with middle-aged and elderly people will face more prominent supply shortages, which will force the agricultural production mode to accelerate and more use of machinery. Instead of labor, expand the scale of operations and increase the level of agricultural productivity.

The labor market and economic development will also face similar challenges. The social security system will accelerate the decline of labor supply and accelerate the disappearance of the “demographic dividend”. This will also force the transformation of economic development mode, capital and technology to accelerate the replacement of labor, and the driving force for economic growth. Re-allocation effects from resources that rely on factors of production and agriculture to non-agriculture are shifted to relying on total factor productivity to increase labor productivity (Cai, 2011). In this process, the social security system may not only reduce the level of labor supply, but also play the role of raising the level of human capital, which requires more efforts in good system design.

Third, seek a social security system that is compatible with the labor market and economic development. China cannot take the European welfare state model. This is not only because of the financial burden, but also because of the negative effects on the labor supply and the potential growth of the economy. The excessive welfare will increase the risk of China trapping the “middle income trap”. In an effort to maximize overall welfare, the reform of the social security system needs to address the minimum distortion of labor supply, design a reasonable safeguard system, and determine a moderate level of protection (Fuster, 2007). The special course and stage characteristics of China's economic and social development require us to pay full attention to the relationship between the social security system and labor supply. How to construct an "employment-friendly" social security system is an important issue to be considered in China's economic and social development.

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