Inventory of the top ten wind vane events in 2014

Indeed, this year is an extraordinary year for the development of the payment industry.

Forecast of the future development of the payment industry

The Internet is currently full of rumors and predictions about 2015. In the past, the bustling shopping party, decoration party, and planned travel party have retired to the second line and began to bet to speculate on what new changes will be made in the payment industry in 2015. I have heard too many overly optimistic predictions, various articles and remarks that claim that the mobile payment business will be a big hit, various predictions about the prosperity or decline of the payment industry, and some assert that mobile payment will skyrocket in 2015.

About ten consecutive years

People have embraced and expressed their affirmation and praise for mobile payment. It seems that so many people's predictions about mobile payment will guarantee the development of the mobile payment industry next year.

My point of view

In 2001, analysts predicted that the amount of mobile payments in 2008 would reach $37 billion. You know, in 2001, it was only six years before Amazon launched on the Internet. It was only a year before RIM launched the BlackBerry. After six years, Apple's mobile phone appeared in people's eyes.

In 2009, these analysts added that the amount of mobile payments in 2012 will reach 10 billion (note that this has been reduced by 27 billion from the 2001 forecast). At this time, Apple's mobile phone and its app store were launched only 2 years ago, and the global penetration rate of smart phones is less than 5%. And these analysts are "more and more frustrated", and then in 2012 it is predicted that the amount of mobile payments in 2013 will rise to 2 billion US dollars (according to their previous predictions, perhaps this data will fall from 10 billion), and six months After that, the prediction is only half of the forecast.

Therefore, if you count the accounts, the amount of mobile payment forecasting has been shrinking over the past 13 years. The only accurate data point we can point to is that the actual sales of retailers far exceed the amount of mobile wallet transactions, including Physical store and online sales.

Analysts don't have the high-tech crystal ball that Santa Claus sent, and there is no way to make accurate predictions. In fact, no one can truly understand the development of the mobile payment industry, whether it is its growth period or boom period is unpredictable. But today we will refer to the past predictions of PYMNTS Mobile Transaction TickerMobile Tran. You can also know who made predictions over the years.

After all, if we don't know the changes in the past, how can we really understand the situation in 2015?

Some predictions

For example, we all know that due to the popularity of smartphones and the development of Internet functions, e-commerce has increased its turnover by 20% worldwide.

We also know that North America and China account for 90% of the total. In Europe and the United States, 70% of consumers use their mobile phones and tablets for online shopping, as do 59% of people in the Asia Pacific region – just a few weeks ago, Alibaba’s turnover is over 54% through mobile devices. carry out.

At the same time, we also know that as the market matures, the development of e-commerce begins to slow down. The line between “e” (e-commerce) and “m” (mobile commerce) is constantly blurring, and more people in the world are beginning to automatically and unconsciously use their networked mobile phones to complete business transactions, including in any location, including physical stores. . I predict that we will soon see the integration of e-commerce and mobile commerce, collectively referred to as "digital commerce", to explain the phenomenon that commerce can be carried out anytime and anywhere through networked devices. In physical stores, e-commerce and mobile commerce are not What is the difference?

In addition, I venture to speculate that no matter how high our mobile commerce payment is, in 2015, in the United States and other developed countries in the world, all consumers will continue to use plastic cards to pay at retail stores. At least most of the current business is still doing this.

The reason for this is that although Tim Cook wrote the mockery of the leather wallet when Apple Pay was founded, credit card payments in the store still exist. There are currently no attractive value propositions that force merchants or consumers to make changes.

As for merchants, they face too many choices and risks, both in terms of funding, cloud and application usage. At the same time, they are also trying to figure out how to face the EMV installation, they have now decided to put the mobile payment plan aside and wait for a while to see.

Probably, the biggest question is not whether mobile payments will prosper in 2015—and in fact shouldn't—but will 2015 be a year of mobile payment targeting? It may be.

There have been 10 major events in 2014, and I think it will change the development track of the payment industry in the next decade. These things alone do not seem to have any impact on the future. However, together they will affect the decision-making and planning of the payment industry operators. These operators have also been ambitions to promote mobile payments around the world in the next few decades.

They are:

1. Target data leakage event

In my opinion, Target data leakage is the “black swan” of the payment system, completely changing the participants' priorities and focus.

Of course, in the strict sense, this "black swan" appeared in December 2013, but we did not notice in 2014 that merchants will re-use mobile payment to attract consumers to obtain incremental income, but they pay attention Point on the data that cybercriminals have successfully threatened cardholders and how we will respond.

Target has become the target of public criticism. Although everyone acknowledges that EMV has no effect on default, Target's former president became a spokesperson for EMV, emphasizing the role and impact of EMV in this industry. However, this is also easy to understand. No one is willing to take such a big risk, and it is easy to adopt such a standard to ensure the safety of consumers at the physical point of sale, and to promote it around the world. The online payment industry is particularly eye-catching when the merchant notices that the consumer has not stopped using the credit card after the information leak time, but stops using the specific merchants such as Target that have been reported.

The leakage of 70 million transaction records and 40 million card information (including debit cards and credit cards) caused Target's profit in the fourth quarter of 2013 to drop directly by 46%. The entire payment financial system spent about $1 billion to clean up the mess. . Target unilaterally predicts that they need to spend 100 million to update the terminal system, and this is only the beginning. A Minnesota judge recently allowed banks to continue to sue Target for the losses they suffered as a result of information disclosure. Of course, after the emergence of the Target information disclosure incident, in 2014, a number of information leakage incidents broke out in succession, shifting people's attention from the various aspects of mobile payment to other aspects. The "other" here is the EMV. In 2014, it began to change the focus of merchants and publishers, and they began to pay attention to the data security of cardholders at physical point of sale. This process will continue in 2015, and then enter the next big obstacle to ensure data security online.

2.EMV is a reality in the United States

Until the Target information disclosure incident, people in the United States had a dubious attitude towards EMV. In fact, in addition to many businesses gaining benefits through the terminal's EMV, there is no particularly necessary reason to adopt EMV. Fraud, especially password debit cards, is controllable. The focus of the business is also to break the password mode when consumers use mobile devices, thereby improving the user experience and increasing profit income.

As I mentioned above, the series of events that followed the Target information disclosure crisis changed the order of the list. Merchants swarmed and began to configure EMV, and try to be consistent with the October 2015 responsibility adjustment date.

Many people believe that merchants have turned to EMV in 2014, and NFC and NFC technology mobile wallet plans will bring benefits in 2015 and future development. At this point, I think it is just an unknown number.

More exaggerated predictions say that as long as 5 years, 85% of the US merchants will apply EMV technology. At the end of 2015, 25% of the terminals will be used. But most of the merchants they say use Walmart terminal technology. The NFC payment system is mutually exclusive with these terminals. The “most” merchants in these forecasters will use the NFC system to look more like a beautiful one. Hope rather than the expected facts.

Next, I will also talk about the role of EMV, which guarantees the cardholders to use the shopping card safely for trading, and provides an Internet-centric symbolic marking system. EMC technology and cryptography are the foundation of this system. Whether it is functioning to promote the development of NFC mobile payment systems remains to be seen, and this depends on other aspects of development in 2014.

3. Big boss appears

Looking back at 2013, the development of the payment industry is indeed unremarkable. It may be related to the fact that many operators have begun to work hard for Apple Pay. They started to quietly develop under the cover of Apple's armored NDAs, ready to fly again. But there have been interesting changes in the key players of 2014, which may be a sign of the development situation in the next few years.

Chase's partnership with Visa in 2013 helped it get a personal license for the VisaNet transaction processing network system, which became available in early 2014. Chase can now establish direct contact between the issuer and the merchant through its new Chase Merchant Service feature. JPMC has been controlling consumer card and merchant services (via Paymentech), but now it can introduce new tricks, such as creating new third-party networking systems. For details, please refer to the press release of Mike Passilla, the head of Chase Merchant Services, and I will make my own considerations.

As for corporate mergers, Vantiv merged with Mercury and introduced a new corporate positioning as a comprehensive payment problem solver. This merger not only has a major impact on the development of the payment industry in 2015, but also completed the transition from a merchant service provider to a unilateral multi-payment service provider to help the merchant successfully complete the transaction.

The same is true for First Data, but there are some differences. It has three mergers this year (Clovr, Perka, and Gyft, totaling $10 million), a signal for the transformation of First Data, a company that provides hardware, software, and mobile applications for the development of a single source. The company provides help. The key to this packaged business is data, with a clear interface that allows merchants to see how sales are growing (for example, where sales come from), while providing them with a toolkit to take advantage of some of the shortcomings—bids, Comprehensive gift card function, social score growth and the like. First Data recently partnered with BlueSnap to help users conduct cross-border trade more effectively. Of course, in addition to providing better services to 6 million business partners, all of this can be seen in the first equity crowdfunding in the near future.

We have also witnessed the repositioning and improvement of some traditional terminal operators. As the US EMV campaign progressed, they also took advantage of the terminal upgrade wave to avoid becoming a single closed hardware company in the current environment of various open platforms and Internet access devices. For example, Ingenico increased its stake in the mPOS leader ROAM. First merged with O;ne to expand the scope of business, not only limited to physical store transactions, but also opened the online platform, and later merged with Global Collect, which has made great progress in cross-border transactions.

4.Beacons are on fire!

In 2013, Apple introduced the iBeacons feature, which provides a time- and money-saving way to establish a two-way conversation with the device-held users of the running system. After Apple introduced this new feature, it inspired many other innovators who tapped into the potential to create applications that fit their needs. Beacons—applicable to both Apple and Android systems—because of its simplicity and low cost, it overcomes the problem of causality and is loved by users. By downloading the merchant app they want to know, mobile users can take advantage of Beacons.

In 2014, we witnessed more than 30,000 Beacons users successfully entering shopping streets, stores, airports, stadiums, and many other companies that also use Beacons. In the payments and business sectors, when consumers enter the store, merchants can use Beacons to lock consumers and connect consumers to other data sources to provide a better shopping experience. These are all important, because businesses are eager to let consumers feel their quality service from the moment they enter the store. Beacon-related applications can aggregate all previous orders after the consumer has finished shopping, provide some promotions and recommended products according to the shopping history, remind consumers to use the gift cards in time, and even confirm the payment information when they pay.

Now, in addition to those issues that are not worth mentioning in the payment, there is a more serious fact in front of the eyes - consumers do not fully trust Beacons. To a certain extent, not all businesses can use it reasonably. However, it is still too early to make a conclusion. In 2015, merchants will try their best to provide a better shopping experience in the store, get more information about the consumer in the store, and even embed the payment program directly into the Beacons related application, when there will be a “hodgepodge”. The phenomenon, Beacons, merchants, payment industry, business and trade are involved.

5. Apple enters the payment industry

On September 9th, Apple launched Apple Pay in a statement, which is a shot that has started the world of sound shocks in the payment industry. As we have reported before, it has changed the dialogue between payments and mobile phones to some extent, which no one has ever done before. It also stimulated the existing Quartet payment representatives to develop electronic applications, working with card issuers and three payment networks.

Apple Pay suddenly appeared to solve the problem for the user - Apple - became a third party between the consumer and the merchant, for the card issuer to contact the wallet provider in the transaction to make the card issuer as a whole transparent. (After all, it is called Apple Pay, not a certain card issuer operated by Apple). At the physical point of sale, NFC has been accepted and is on the rise, bringing benefits to other NFC-based payment systems. For example, ogle Wallet claims to increase its trading volume after the emergence of Apple Pay.

But Apple Pay has not completely revolutionized the payment experience. Like other NFC systems, it only brings small changes at the point of sale rather than radical changes.

This is a major obstacle to Apple Pay's appeal to consumers in September. Some people criticize us for affirming Apple Pay, but surprisingly, anyone who has used Apple Pay has praised it.

In 2014, Apple and Apple Pay made everyone notice that they began to formally join the payment industry. Apple and its vast network system and user base have greatly contributed to its development in the payment field. We are even more eager to see how Apple and Apple Pay will make choices in 2015, whether they will overcome the current and difficult problems at the physical point of sale, how they will decide, their challengers and supplements will How to adapt.

Possibly, one of the two emerging battlefields worth seeing in 2015 is in the field of mobile applications. There is a problem that shopping must overcome, and Apple Pay is only entering the field. At the same time, how Apple Pay will promote global business is also worth watching, such as how to cooperate with China's payment platform Alipay. Although NFC is currently in good use in these parts of the UK, it is a good sign for Apple Pay or iPhone 6, but its current economic model is not.

6. eBay and PayPal decided to part ways

I still remember driving to the office on the morning of October 1. I heard that the host of Bloomberg Radio said that eBay announced the suspension of trading on the same day because it would split up with PayPal. PayPal will make an initial public offering in 2015, and Dan Schulman, former director of Amex Enterprise Payments, will take over PayPal to become its new CEO and lead PayPal into an independent trading company, which surprised me.

I also remember that this is the second real thing after Apple Pay’s announcement. Obviously, the discussion about Apple Pay's launch and the two splits lasted for more than three weeks, but it certainly would be irrelevant to Apple's involvement in the payment field.

This is in sharp contrast to what John Donahoe said in less than nine months ago – the payment industry and the commerce industry are interdependent, and eBay and PayPal seem to be better together.

Having said that, in short, this event foreshadows many new changes in 2015, and operators in the payment and business systems will make new moves. For both parties, this seems to be a good thing. eBay and PayPal are free to develop and find partners without restrictions, which is quite difficult before they become independent companies. At the same time, it provides an opportunity for independent development of eBay and PayPal.

The separation of the two provides eBay with new opportunities to adopt other third-party platforms as a payment option for the market, such as Alipay. Of course, PayPal also needs to work harder to continue to maintain 33% of profits from eBay.

For PayPal, it used to account for 40% of eBay's turnover, but now 75% of business after leaving eBay is gone. Its focus should be on expanding the position of the wallet business. There are currently 157,000,000 users worldwide, and more coverage locations and more people are needed to use it.

The biggest benefit of PayPal after eBay is that it can be developed as an independent payment method. However, how it starts to brand, expand the payment field, and enhance financial business capabilities—transaction credit, risk management, interest, P2P, cross-border transactions—is what everyone expects to see in 2015.

Regarding PayPal, it is still a question mark to make a public offering or to be merged by another company.

7. Alibaba receives the highest equity financing in US history

During the emergence of Apple Pay and eBay and PayPal, Alibaba successfully launched a public offering in the United States, raising the amount of money in US history.

After raising $25 billion in public offerings on September 18, Alibaba’s market capitalization has risen by $80 billion. Today, Alibaba's market value has reached $259 billion, which is higher than the total market of eBay ($60 billion) and Amazon ($140 billion), and also exceeds Wal-Mart ($239 billion). In addition, according to Fortune magazine's survey, Alibaba's value is second only to eight companies with a S&P index of 500.

In this way, Ma Yun became the richest man in Asia, but it also brought him tremendous pressure. In an interview with CNBC (National Broadcasting Corporation Financial Channel), he said that all this came too suddenly, which made him a little off guard, and the people around him felt the same.

As we know, Alibaba is China's giant payment platform, which dominates China's business development. Its sales in the “Double Eleven” this year almost reached 10 billion US dollars, and it is constantly developing in China.

However, Alibaba's eyes are not limited to China, but also focus on the global market. Moreover, it is also consciously and prepared to move in this direction. It already has a Portuguese version of the interface to appeal to Brazilian customers, thus defeating eBay, the market's rival. In addition, Alibaba has also embedded its supplier network into the Bigcommerce.com platform so that small and medium-sized merchants can access the global manufacturer's network system and continue their business. It also works with Stripe to make it easier for Alipay to access non-Chinese interfaces and to invest in other US business sites, such as 1st Dibs and 11Main, to facilitate global expansion.

However, this is not the real status of the payment industry and the trade industry.

Alibaba is not a company. It is a financial system, a platform for Chinese consumers to provide comprehensive, multi-level life services. Alibaba promotes online transactions through market platforms, completes online and offline payments, billing through Alipay, and manages post-logistics and delivery, investment, insurance, messaging, social media, and contact mechanisms through a range of physical companies. The company is also affiliated with or invested in it.

One of Alibaba's most valuable creations is Alipay, which is also considered an independent company with half of the control of Ma Yun (Ma Yun said last month that Alipay may also participate in public offerings). There are many reasons why Alipay is so popular. About 800 million Chinese consumers have Alipay accounts, and more than 300 million of them use mobile devices. In addition, another factor that determines its value is that Alipay is the core gateway to the emerging middle class and demanding Chinese consumers.

This is why Alibaba can expand globally without the need to play a slogan.

Taking ShopRunner as an example, Alibaba invested more than $200 million in ShopRunner, which allowed it to accept Alipay, and then millions of consumers would use Alipay when purchasing products from American merchants. At the same time, the number of Chinese consumers has only increased, and more and more Chinese people choose to use Alipay. More than half of China’s population now uses the Internet.

Therefore, if Alibaba uses the funds raised in 2014 for global expansion, we will see how it can use these funds to achieve results in 2015.

8. Amazon materialization

Another high-level business company with a global perspective is Amazon. In 2014, we also saw Amazon's footsteps and plans.

For example, how did it invest a lot of money to expand its business and frustrated?

Amazon's president, Jeff Bezos, said last month that he "has lost billions of dollars in Amazon." Amazon first broke into hundreds of millions of dollars in the launch of Amazon Firephone, but after it was put into use in the summer of 2014, the amount of usage was pitiful and there was no eye-catching value positioning. Except for Amazon and Apple-like labels, it did come. Other consumers and users are reluctant to use it, even if the price drops to $1.

In 2014, the first eTailer also announced that they would also launch a physical version in New York and rent a whole building in the city centre for business. They also announced that they may enter the online travel market in 2015, using various means to develop online vegetable purchases (including designing Dash equipment to simplify this process), releasing Amazon Local, plumbers, electricians, Angie's list services. Connect with Amazon cardholders, launch online ordering and shipping like Seamless and GrubHub, speed up delivery time by wirelessly controlling bicycles and one-hour delivery in New York, officially launching their own consumer branded merchandise and other Online sellers compete, and other competitors have lowered prices in this season in order to beat Amazon.

Analysts have described Amazon's development in 2014 with the idea of ​​“selling sesame and losing watermelon”. Critics say that it is time for Amazon to prove that they have the ability to face the challenges of the market and spend money in the right place to make a profit.

Amazon's biggest asset is that it has 220 million permanent users. They have changed the consumer's shopping experience, and both online and physical retailers have felt this change. Many consumers start with Amazon. Amazon has also successfully broken the previous usage habits, making full use of this advantage to expand online, and selecting the most suitable products for the market demand among millions of products.

In 2015, we will see how Amazon is expanding its offline market. Amazon has the potential to enter local businesses, and it will be a very strong opponent – ​​even if it is not in all respects, it is very dominant in terms of food and service. However, how far it can go depends on how it competes with some of the merchants in the online market. In this holiday season, we have seen that many large businesses are better than Amazon – such as price discounts. Whether or not this is an exception or a foregone conclusion, we still need to continue to observe.

9. Backtracking Bitcoin

There is one thing around you. It has been around for six years and has been used frequently in the past two years. In some illegal transactions, it also accounts for a large proportion, including smuggling drugs, assassination activities, etc. Some users of its sales network use it for money laundering. In this industry, two of the five leaders have been sued by the government for crime, and the board of directors has a new Members are suspected of being embarrassed by children, but have invested $350,000,000 in development projects. There are conferences around the world that discuss how to innovate on an existing basis, and let bankers face it as an alternative to existing funds transfer transactions.

It is bitcoin.

In 2014, as a currency, Bitcoin turned like a roller coaster, and the situation was not as good as it used to be. Its market price has been unsteady, varying between 15 times market value and 70 times market value, just like the euro. At present, 70% of the market value of Bitcoin has disappeared. There is a view that global currencies can stabilize the value of the Argentine peso. This is not only unbelievable, but also somewhat ridiculous. It is like believing that the central bank will support the global money supply and transfer control of its own economy to others. .

Whether it is to use bitcoin as a currency or as a substitute for money is impractical.

A big hot topic in 2014 was whether to put Bitcoin on the monetary agenda. Advocates believe that as an effective way of currency trading worldwide, the transparency of Bitcoin guarantees low cost and high efficiency. But our observations in 2014 reflect the instability of Bitcoin, and its market price has reached a critical point. Perhaps the most vivid and profound lesson in 2014 to promote the entry of Bitcoin into the bill is to focus on the risk of transferring funds. When transferring funds to a non-regulated platform for random exchange operators, there are many risks, and it is possible that they will not be able to recover funds due to the unknown of these carrier bases and the country in which they are located.

Some people think that to solve this problem, it is necessary to create a system like the HTTP network protocol address. This idea sounds interesting, innovative and inspiring, but it is still unrealistic.

In 2014, Bitcoin's greatest contribution to world capital flows was to focus everyone on how to improve the way they do business, and then use our regulatory norms and current systems to achieve this goal. So let's look forward to 2015 and see if all the rumors about Bitcoin becoming a global currency or token are coming true, how the current system will improve and be more efficient.

10. Token re-creating digital identity

Apple Pay may move faster than expected in terms of changing consumers' way of buying in physical stores, but the symbolic structure provides a key guarantee for its security and is one of the most interesting aspects of the system. A new star in the payment industry in 2014. Of course, it is also committed to consolidating the system of security, identity and business as an important channel for future transactions.

For now, symbolization is indeed the latest security transaction. Mobile phone systems have begun to use it to transcribe user information into unreadable data. However, the back-end network design system enables Apple Pay to meet people's expectations and become a standard system for business operations, bringing a new benefit to its operators.

First, it can symbolize the user's personal account, convert it into a device account, and store it in the security system of the user device. All user devices have different accounts, so they can be turned on and off relatively simply. Turns on when transactions are needed, and closes when there is a security crisis or information disclosure. In addition, it simplifies business processes over the Internet, as account credentials are securely and freely extracted through networking.

But the precautionary measures of this system are far more than these.

When a transaction is made, it generates a one-time encrypted account. These two steps will weaken the connection between personal accounts and transactions and prevent unscrupulous individuals from stealing personal information. The theory used here is that the one-time encrypted account credentials plus the non-relationship between the digital device account and the real account can ensure that those information thefters have nothing to gain.

Now, we are still in the early days, and there are still some problems in the process of symbolization. We need to see in 2015 how these network operators can take into account all the details of business. For example, to help retailers launch loyalty programs to consumers, users can hide personal information and earnings when using devices. At the same time, adjust it to apply a variety of technologies (not just NFC) and channels (not limited to physical retail stores. NFC or iPhone 6 mobile applications). This is in line with Apple and its stakeholders and shareholders – Apple Pay is currently only a newcomer in the payment industry, and should try to ensure that this system is not only effective in Apple Pay, but also for people outside of Apple. Payment instrument.

These are the top ten weathervanes in the 2014 payment industry that I think will affect the payment industry for the next year. Moreover, unlike 2013, I believe that the payment industry in 2015 will have many surprises, and there are many visible activities and changes. I also believe that what happened in 2015 and the next three years will determine the situation in the coming decades.

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